Have you wondered what the REAL story is in Syria?  What’s motivating things behind the scenes?  No one knows for sure, but here’s my opinion.

It’s about Iran and Israel. Here’s why.

The country of Iran is not an imminent or direct threat to Israel’s security. President Ahmadinejad likes to threaten Israel, but it’s for show.  The Hamas are also not a threat – they are contained and have no real weapons.  They are more of a thorn in the flesh than an actual threat.  The only real threat to Israel is the Hezbollah of Lebanon.

Syria is the main source of Hezbollah’s support. It may come from Iran originally but without the support of the Assad regime it would have no chance of making it to Lebanon (I’m speaking of financial, political and military support).

All along America has been worried about Iran (mistakingly so, in my opinion). Going into Iraq was largely about containing Iran.  We underestimated  the Shi’ite alliance between Iraq and Iran though – a big miscalculation on George W’s part.

The Alawites of Syria (Assad’s tribe) is a Shi’ite offshoot and has been sympathetic to both Iran and the Hezbollah.  The swath – from East to West – of Shi’ites from Iran, through southern Iraq, and the Alawites of Syria and then the Hezbollah of Southern Lebanon, are a formidable coalition.  When I was in Saudi last month, everyone I talked to was obsessed with “the Shi’ite problem.”  They are the Gulf’s worst nightmare (they aren’t really, but that’s the perception).

If you break up Syria – you break the power of this potential coalition of Shi’ites in the region. It ends up protecting Israel from the Hezbollah.  And it satisfies our Oil Buddies of the Gulf countries.  Israel is secure. And we get our oil.

And that’s the #1 (maybe the only) American policy towards the Middle East – stability (for our oil) and security for Israel.

Make sense?